What Predicts Success? Myths and Realities

0:09 hi there 0:10 it's good to see you in this session 0:13 you'll learn about what predicts success 0:15 and i'm going to begin the session with 0:17 a little quiz 0:19 now how much of your success and let's 0:22 say 0:23 salaries and promotion is predicted by 0:26 your iq 0:27 your intelligence quotient for our 0:29 purposes 0:30 we'll use iq to mean how well you do 0:33 on standardized tests of intelligence 0:37 and let's assume you're somewhere in the 0:39 normal range of intelligence 0:41 and let's even assume that you're on the 0:43 high end of intelligence 0:46 so again how much of your success 0:49 let's say salary and promotions is 0:51 predicted by your iq 0:54 75 to 100 0:57 50 to 74 percent 1:00 25 to 49 percent or below 1:04 25 percent the correct answer is d 1:09 below 25 percent researcher robert 1:12 sternberg 1:13 one of the world's most renowned experts 1:15 on the link between intelligence and 1:17 success in life 1:18 found that iq as assessed by 1:20 conventional standardized tests 1:23 predicts only between 4 to 25 1:26 percent of people's success in life 1:28 assuming they're somewhere in the normal 1:30 even high range of intelligence 1:32 as sternberg says that's scarcely 1:34 something to write home about 1:37 so why isn't iq a powerful predictor of 1:39 long-term success 1:41 sternberg says that people often assume 1:45 that being smart is the same thing as 1:47 being intelligent 1:49 and they define intelligence as how well 1:51 people do on standardized tests and 1:53 grades 1:54 in school now iq tests tend to focus on 1:57 analytical skills 1:59 also known as book smarts although book 2:01 smarts may help us get high grades in 2:03 school 2:04 book smarts aren't the only kind of 2:06 smarts we need to succeed 2:08 in a complex ambiguous and ever-changing 2:10 world 2:11 in which real problems are often hard to 2:13 define the one best answer doesn't 2:15 always exist 2:17 and we need the support of others to 2:19 accomplish our goals 2:20 we also need flexibility creativity and 2:23 the willingness to take calculated risks 2:25 and invest in lifelong learning we need 2:28 to be able to inspire others 2:30 influence others and develop mutually 2:32 supportive relationships 2:34 and we need to be dependable because 2:37 other people count on us to achieve 2:38 their goals as well 2:40 and we need to be able to manage stress 2:42 and be persistent and resilient 2:44 especially in the face of hurdles and 2:47 failures 2:48 finally we need to know when to cut our 2:50 losses and find opportunities 2:52 that are better aligned with our values 2:54 and life goals 2:57 this explains why some people who excel 3:00 in school 3:01 never achieve their goals after they 3:02 graduate and why 3:04 some people who are mediocre students 3:06 achieve or even exceed their goals 3:09 i'm not saying here that analytical 3:11 skills aren't important to your success 3:14 the ability to think clearly and 3:16 logically being able to see the 3:18 different parts of complex problems and 3:20 how these parts fit together 3:22 being able to see patterns and solve 3:23 problems in a systematic way using 3:26 evidence in order to make decisions and 3:29 being able to communicate the steps you 3:31 take to understand 3:32 and solve complex problems certainly 3:34 matter a lot in life 3:36 but analytical skills as measured by 3:39 standardized tests of analytical ability 3:42 will not be enough to help you achieve 3:44 the success that you desire 3:47 now people often ask me whether iq is 3:49 something that is wired in 3:51 at birth well the answer is complicated 3:54 because researchers have been debating 3:56 this 3:57 for a long time many researchers argue 4:00 that iq is innate 4:02 but many other researchers believe that 4:04 a person's iq can change 4:05 certainly up to a point through 4:07 supportive environments and practice 4:10 researchers have found that a supportive 4:13 and intellectually stimulating 4:14 environment 4:15 can result in a 12 to 18 point different 4:18 in ice q scores for some people now this 4:21 increase in points can move someone from 4:24 being categorized from 4:25 low to average intelligence or from 4:27 average to above average intelligence 4:30 some researchers have found that for 4:32 each year that a student misses in 4:34 school 4:36 their iq scores decline about six points 4:40 i have a personal story related to this 4:43 mba 4:44 programs typically require that students 4:46 take the graduate management admissions 4:48 test 4:48 that's designed to assess a variety of 4:51 verbal 4:51 writing and analytical skills believed 4:54 to be relevant to success in 4:56 business these skills include analytical 4:59 writing and problem solving 5:01 as well as skills in data analysis logic 5:04 and critical reasoning 5:05 when i was applying for admission to mba 5:08 programs 5:08 i took the gmat test twice the first 5:11 time i didn't do very well 5:13 and in fact not very well at all and my 5:17 college counselor told me that i should 5:18 forget about getting an mba 5:20 and he'd be happy to hear now how my 5:22 life turned out 5:24 thankfully instead of believing him i 5:27 bought a gmat preparation book 5:29 and that was before the internet that 5:31 had hundreds of questions 5:33 and i studied from that book every night 5:36 i answered every question in that book i 5:39 identified which questions i got wrong 5:42 and i 5:43 figured out why i got those questions 5:45 wrong and then i take the practice test 5:47 over and over again and when i took the 5:51 official gmat test again 5:53 my score went up quite a bit enough to 5:56 help me get into the mba program i 5:58 wanted to join at the university of 6:00 massachusetts amherst 6:01 and eventually into the yale phd program 6:05 now that's a photo of me after my 6:07 graduation from the mba program 6:10 and who knows where i'd be today if i 6:12 had listened to that college counselor 6:15 now i'm not saying that studying for 6:17 tests of scholastic achievement will 6:19 always improve someone's grades but it 6:22 does for many people 6:23 my point is that you may have more 6:25 control over assessments of your 6:27 analytic abilities 6:29 than you think jumping into the middle 6:32 of the debate 6:33 about whether iq and analytical 6:35 abilities 6:36 are innate may be entertaining and they 6:39 may be interesting 6:40 but it won't help you in your quest for 6:42 success 6:44 how do i know that because stanford 6:47 professor 6:48 of psychology carol dweck and her 6:50 colleagues have shown 6:51 that you're more likely to achieve your 6:53 life goals if you believe your 6:55 intelligence 6:56 talents and personality are fluid which 6:59 means 7:00 changeable with effort rather than fixed 7:03 which means innate and unchangeable 7:07 you'll learn more about the power 7:08 beliefs have in predicting your success 7:11 later in this course so 7:14 if iq isn't as strong a predictor of 7:16 success that many people assume it is 7:19 then what about natural talent do you 7:22 find yourself saying she's a natural 7:25 leader 7:25 or he's a natural communicator do you 7:28 ever say things like i'm not a people 7:31 person 7:31 or i'm not a numbers person if so 7:35 you're showing one of the most common 7:37 biases people have 7:38 and one that can hold you back from 7:41 achieving the success that you desire 7:44 one of the most important lessons to 7:46 take from this course 7:48 is that believing in the idea that there 7:50 are born leaders 7:51 natural talents and overnight successes 7:54 can hold you back from achieving your 7:56 goals 7:57 because these beliefs can hold you back 7:59 from putting in the years of dedicated 8:02 time and effort that it takes to become 8:04 successful 8:05 in whatever you choose to do now what 8:08 looks like natural talent is 8:10 usually the result of years of mindful 8:13 deliberate practice 8:16 consider the following examples tennis 8:20 champion serena williams who has won 8:22 four olympic gold medals is often 8:24 portrayed as being a 8:25 natural athlete we don't know if she was 8:28 born with any innate athletic advantages 8:31 but we do know that she started playing 8:34 tennis when she was only three years old 8:36 when her family moved to compton 8:38 california to begin 8:40 serena's and her sister venuses another 8:42 world-class champion 8:43 their tennis training in earnest the 8:46 family moved several times to give their 8:48 daughters the best coaching available 8:51 serena endured several losses and 8:53 injuries throughout her career 8:55 by the time she was seen as an overnight 8:57 success 8:58 she had invested over 15 years into 9:01 becoming one of the most accomplished 9:03 tennis players in the world 9:05 british prime minister winston churchill 9:08 whose impassioned 9:09 speeches inspired the united kingdom 9:11 during the darkest days of world war ii 9:14 is considered to be one of the greatest 9:16 orators of the 20th century 9:19 yet for years he worked hard to overcome 9:21 a speech impediment 9:23 he practiced his speeches over and over 9:25 again 9:26 until they seemed to flow effortlessly 9:29 churchill sometimes 9:30 even used his speech impediment to his 9:32 advantage by deliberately inserting 9:35 long pauses in his speeches for emphasis 9:39 actor james earl jones the famous voice 9:42 of star wars darth vader 9:44 overcame a childhood stutter to become 9:46 one of the media's most powerful 9:48 and memorable voices in an interview 9:51 jones said that he believes his 9:53 difficulty speaking when he was a child 9:55 helped him become a particularly good 9:57 listener throughout his life 9:59 he credits his high school teacher's 10:01 efforts to help him overcome his stutter 10:03 by repeatedly encouraging him to recite 10:05 poetry out loud in class 10:07 as the first step along his path to 10:09 becoming an actor 10:11 the beatles the best-selling rock band 10:14 in history 10:15 was an immediate sensation in the u.s 10:17 when they made their television debut 10:19 on the ed sullivan show on february 9 10:22 1964 10:23 an unprecedented 73 million people 10:26 watched them 10:27 and that evening's ed sullivan show 10:29 became the highest rated tv show 10:32 ever at that time what is less known is 10:35 that the band practiced throughout 10:36 europe for several years 10:38 including two years in german bars for 10:40 eight hours a day 10:41 before they became what seemed to be an 10:44 overnight success 10:45 the band had played in over 1200 10:47 concerts by the time they reached the ed 10:49 sullivan show 10:51 now natural born geniuses and overnight 10:54 successes 10:55 may exist but they are few and far 10:58 between 10:59 most successful people develop their 11:01 talents and earn their successes 11:03 day by day play by play while enduring 11:07 roadblocks 11:08 mistakes and failures along the way 11:11 certainly some people are born with 11:12 advantages physical size for jockeys 11:16 height for basketball players or an ear 11:18 for music for musicians 11:20 we are after all not all born the same 11:24 yet only dedication to mindful 11:26 deliberate 11:27 practice over many years can turn those 11:30 advantages into talents 11:32 and those talents into successes so even 11:35 though you may feel that you weren't 11:36 born with a talent for math 11:39 you can significantly increase your 11:40 mathematical abilities through such 11:42 mindful deliberate practice 11:44 or if you consider yourself naturally 11:47 shy 11:47 putting in the time and effort into 11:49 developing your social skills 11:51 can enable you to interact with people 11:53 at social occasions with grace 11:55 and with ease now listen to what michael 11:58 jordan one of the most awarded 11:59 basketball players of all time 12:01 has to say about natural talent versus 12:04 hard work 12:04 in this short video 12:09 maybe it's my fault maybe i led you to 12:13 believe 12:13 it was easy when it wasn't 12:17 maybe i made you think my highlight 12:18 started at the free throw line 12:20 and not in the gym maybe i made you 12:24 think that every shot i took 12:25 was a game-winner 12:28 that my game was built on flash and not 12:31 fire 12:34 maybe it's my fault that you didn't see 12:36 that failure gave me strength 12:38 that my pain was my motivation 12:40 [Music] 12:42 maybe i led you to believe that 12:44 basketball was a god-given gift 12:46 and not something i worked for every 12:49 single day of my life 12:55 maybe i destroyed the game 12:56 [Music] 12:59 or maybe you're just making excuses 13:10 note that jordan also created a 13:12 sustainable career 13:14 that brought him outstanding success 13:16 beyond his years as a professional 13:18 basketball player 13:20 through his business acumen he's now one 13:22 of the highest paid sports celebrities 13:24 in the world 13:25 and he was the first nba basketball 13:27 player to become a billionaire 13:30 now what i want you to remember is this 13:33 first analytical intelligence although 13:35 important 13:36 is only one predictor of success 13:39 second you can increase your analytical 13:42 intelligence 13:43 as well as many other skills that are 13:45 central to your success 13:46 through devoted practice and third 13:49 over-relying on intelligence can prevent 13:52 you from learning 13:53 other talents that are equally and 13:55 sometimes more important to your success 13:58 and well-being in life 14:00 so if analytical abilities aren't enough 14:02 and if natural talent 14:04 isn't enough what does predict success 14:08 researchers have found that successful 14:11 people 14:12 develop beliefs that propel them forward 14:15 rather than hold them back 14:17 they develop an expertise that is 14:19 meaningful to them 14:20 and that matters to others they are 14:23 self-motivated to achieve their goals 14:25 and they move steadily toward their 14:27 goals despite the inevitable failures 14:29 and setbacks 14:30 and they do so by being conscientious 14:32 and gritty 14:34 and they develop mutually supportive 14:36 relationships 14:37 through which they give and get 14:38 resources that are necessary to their 14:40 success 14:42 and to the success of others i will 14:45 discuss each of these strategies for 14:46 success throughout this course 14:48 and i will provide you with insights 14:50 from decades of research 14:52 as well as ideas and i hope the 14:54 inspiration 14:55 for implementing these strategies in 14:58 your own life 14:59 thank you for listening