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Democracy and Debate / Democracy and Debate Across the College of Literature, Science, and the Arts (LSA)

Predicting Elections: Polls versus Markets

What do you think works better at predicting the outcomes of elections, polls or markets? This is the central question that animates this conversation between Democracy & Debate host Angela Dillard and Dr. Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy. We tend to be much more familiar with polling and polling data, but as Dr. Wolfers explains, prediction markets (such as Predict It) are increasingly popular ways to measure and gauge voter opinion on candidates and issues. In this exchange Wolfers touches on the origins of prediction markets and their use in contemporary society as well as their strengths and drawbacks, especially in comparison to more conventional political polls.

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