Professor of Complex Systems, Political Science, and Economics
Model Thinking
What You'll Learn
- Understand how models make us better thinkers.
- Learn how social scientists frame and interpret models.
12 Modules
24 Hours
2 hrs per module (approx.)
Rating
About Model Thinking
We live in a complex world with diverse people, firms, and governments whose behaviors aggregate to produce novel, unexpected phenomena. We see political uprisings, market crashes, and a never ending array of social trends. How do we make sense of it? Models. Evidence shows that people who think with models consistently outperform those who don't. And, moreover people who think with lots of models outperform people who use only one. Why do models make us better thinkers? Models help us to better organize information - to make sense of that fire hose or hairball of data (choose your metaphor) available on the Internet. Models improve our abilities to make accurate forecasts. They help us make better decisions and adopt more effective strategies. They even can improve our ability to design institutions and procedures. In this class, I present a starter kit of models: I start with models of tipping points. I move on to cover models explain the wisdom of crowds, models that show why some countries are rich and some are poor, and models that help unpack the strategic decisions of firm and politicians.
The models covered in this class provide a foundation for future social science classes, whether they be in economics, political science, business, or sociology. Mastering this material will give you a huge leg up in advanced courses. They also help you in life. Here's how the course will work. For each model, I present a short, easily digestible overview lecture. Then, I'll dig deeper. I'll go into the technical details of the model. Those technical lectures won't require calculus but be prepared for some algebra. For all the lectures, I'll offer some questions and we'll have quizzes and even a final exam. If you decide to do the deep dive, and take all the quizzes and the exam, you'll receive a Course Certificate. If you just decide to follow along for the introductory lectures to gain some exposure that's fine too. It's all free. And it's all here to help make you a better thinker!
Skills You'll Gain
- Critical Thinking
- Decision Making
- Economic Modeling
- Economics
- Strategic Thinking
What You'll Earn
- Certificate of Completion:
- Certificates of completion acknowledge knowledge acquired upon completion of a non-credit course or program.
Welcome Message
Welcome to Model Thinking, a course that introduces powerful conceptual models used to understand complex systems. Learners apply models from economics, sociology, political science, and mathematics to analyze behavior, predict outcomes, and make better decisions across diverse real-world contexts.
This abbreviated syllabus description was created with the help of AI tools and reviewed by staff. The full syllabus is available to those who enroll in the course.
Course Schedule
Modules 1: Why Model & Segregation/Peer Effects
- Reading: Welcome
- Reading: Course Syllabus
- Reading: Help us learn more about you!
- Reading: Module 1 Resources
- Video: Thanks and Welcome
- Video: Why Model?
- Video: Intelligent Citizens of the World
- Video: Thinking More Clearly
- Video: Using and Understanding Data
- Video: Using Models to Decide, Strategize, and Design
- Reading: Segregation and Peer Effects
- Video: Sorting and Peer Effects Introduction
- Video: Schelling's Segregation Model
- Video: Measuring Segregation
- Video: Peer Effects
- Video: The Standing Ovation Model
- Video: The Identification Problem
- Graded: Why Model? & Segregation and Peer Effects
Modules 2: Aggregation & Decision Models
- Reading: Module 2 Resources
- Video: Aggregation
- Video: Central Limit Theorem
- Video: Six Sigma
- Video: Game of Life
- Video: Cellular Automata
- Video: Preference Aggregation
- Reading: Decision Models
- Video: Introduction to Decision Making
- Video: Multi-Criterion Decision Making
- Video: Spatial Choice Models
- Video: Probability: The Basics
- Video: Decision Trees
- Video: Value of Information
- Graded: Aggregation & Decision Models
Modules 3: Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models
- Reading: Module 3 Resources
- Video: Thinking Electrons: Modeling People
- Video: Rational Actor Models
- Video: Behavioral Models
- Video: Rule Based Models
- Video: When Does Behavior Matter?
- Reading: Categorical and Linear Models
- Video: Introduction to Linear Models
- Video: Categorical Models
- Video: Linear Models
- Video: Fitting Lines to Data
- Video: Reading Regression Output
- Video: From Linear to Nonlinear
- Video: The Big Coefficient vs The New Reality
- Graded: Modules Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models
Modules 4: Tipping Points & Economic Growth
- Reading: Module 4 Resources
- Video: Tipping Points
- Video: Percolation Models
- Video: Contagion Models 1: Diffusion
- Video: Contagion Models 2: SIS Model
- Video: Classifying Tipping Points
- Video: Measuring Tips
- Reading: Economic Growth
- Video: Introduction To Growth
- Video: Exponential Growth
- Video: Basic Growth Model
- Video: Solow Growth Model
- Video: Will China Continue to Grow?
- Video: Why Do Some Countries Not Grow?
- Video: Piketty's Capital: The Power of Simple Model
- Graded: Modules Tipping Points & Economic Growth
Modules 5: Diversity and Innovation & Markov Processes
- Reading: Module 5 Resources
- Video: Problem Solving and Innovation
- Video: Perspectives and Innovation
- Video: Heuristics
- Video: Teams and Problem Solving
- Video: Recombination
- Reading: Markov Processes
- Video: Markov Models
- Video: A Simple Markov Model
- Video: Markov Model of Democratization
- Video: Markov Convergence Theorem
- Video: Exapting the Markov Model
- Graded: Diversity and Innovation & Markov Processes
Modules 6: Midterm Exam
- Graded: Modules 1-5
Modules 7: Lyapunov Functions & Coordination and Culture
- Reading: Module 7 Resources
- Video: Lyapunov Functions
- Video: The Organization of Cities
- Video: Exchange Economies and Externalities
- Video: Time to Convergence and Optimality
- Video: Lyapunov: Fun and Deep
- Video: Lyapunov or Markov
- Reading: Coordination and Culture
- Video: Coordination and Culture
- Video: What Is Culture And Why Do We Care?
- Video: Pure Coordination Game
- Video: Emergence of Culture
- Video: Coordination and Consistency
- Graded: Lyapunov Functions & Coordination and Culture
Module 8: Path Dependence & Networks
- Reading: Module 8 Resources
- Video: Path Dependence
- Video: Urn Models
- Video: Mathematics on Urn Models
- Video: Path Dependence and Chaos
- Video: Path Dependence and Increasing Returns
- Video: Path Dependent or Tipping Point
- Reading: Networks
- Video: Networks
- Video: The Structure of Networks
- Video: The Logic of Network Formation
- Video: Network Function
- Graded: Path Dependence & Networks
Modules 9: Randomness and Random Walks & Colonel Blotto
- Reading: Module 9 Resources
- Video: Randomness and Random Walk Models
- Video: Sources of Randomness
- Video: Skill and Luck
- Video: Random Walks
- Video: Random Walks and Wall Street
- Video: Finite Memory Random Walks
- Reading: Colonel Blotto
- Video: Colonel Blotto Game
- Video: Blotto: No Best Strategy
- Video: Applications of Colonel Blotto
- Video: Blotto: Troop Advantages
- Video: Blotto and Competition
- Graded: Randomness and Random Walks & Colonel Blotto
Modules 10: Prisoners' Dilemma and Collective Action & Mechanism Design
- Reading: Module 10 Resources
- Video: Intro: The Prisoners' Dilemma and Collective Action
- Video: The Prisoners' Dilemma Game
- Video: Seven Ways To Cooperation
- Video: Collective Action and Common Pool Resource Problems
- Video: No Panacea
- Reading: Mechanism Design
- Video: Mechanism Design
- Video: Hidden Action and Hidden Information
- Video: Auctions
- Video: Public Projects
- Graded: Prisoners' Dilemma and Collective Action & Mechanism Design
Modules 11: Learning Models: Replicator Dynamics & Prediction and the Many Model Thinker
- Reading: Module 11 Resources
- Video: Replicator Dynamics
- Video: The Replicator Equation
- Video: Fisher's Theorem
- Video: Variation or Six Sigma
- Reading: Prediction and The Many Model Thinker
- Video: Prediction
- Video: Linear Models
- Video: Diversity Prediction Theorem
- Video: The Many Model Thinker
- Graded: Learning Models: Replicator Dynamics & Prediction and the Many Model Thinker
Module 12: Final Exam
- Graded: Modules 7-11
Grading Policy
There are 10 graded quizzes throughout the course that are each worth 5% of your final grade. There are two exams within the course, each is worth 25% of your final grade.
Course content developed by U-M faculty and managed by the university. Faculty titles and affiliations are updated periodically.
Intermediate Level
Some related experience required
